Small analysis and perspectives, one and a half years after the beginning of the Russian invasion: 1. Past. A year and a half ago we were all (almost) certain that Ukraine would fall. American General Mark Milley said it would fall in 3 days. Very few believed Ukraine would hold out. I was not one of them. Knowing Russia’s technological capabilities, at a superficial level, but yet knowing what they possess especially at the level of air warfare, I could not conceive that Ukraine without immediate and decisive “NATO” involvement would hold out. And resist it did. Without “NATO” involvement, for months. The turning point in this whole conflict was, from my point of view and that of many volunteers in TRO and ZSU “I don’t need ride, I need ammunition” – President Volodimir Zelensky. That was the moment when queues of hundreds of meters and thousands of people formed at recruitment centers in central and western Ukraine. That was the moment that changed the face of the war. On 26 February 2022, I was organizing a march in Brasov, Romania against Russian aggression and in support of Ukrainian defenders where we said that “Morale beats Metal”. It turns out I was at least partly right. – Defending Kyiv; – The Harkiv counteroffensive; – Herson counteroffensive; These 3 incredible achievements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not have been achieved without superior morale, almost the only chapter in which the Ukrainians were superior to the Russians. – Battle for Bakhmut; – The Mariupol Defense/Heroes of Azovstal; – Defence against the Russian offensive in the winter of 2022-2023; All these were achieved based on decisions that influenced the morale of Ukrainian troops, but the morale of Ukrainian troops also influenced the decisions of military commanders such as the exceptional General Sirsky (in my opinion, one of the greatest theatre generals, alive, in the world) General Zaluzhny and those under their command. – Counter-offensive on the Southern Front; – Battle for Bakhmut 2.0; – The Herson counter-offensive on the eastern bank of the Dnieper; These are hardly operations (either at the tactical or operational level) where the influence of Western heavy equipment is significantly important. Until this winter, such equipment existed, but it was far from being the decisive one, except two pieces of equipment that played an important (Bayraktar TB2 drones) and essential role (HIMARS and M270) last autumn. 2. Present. The counteroffensive on the Zaporizhzhia front pierced the fortified first defensive line of the Surovikin Line in several areas. You see after several months of the “shaping” and “recon in force” phase, through which the Ukrainians decimated Russian morale, equipment, logistic lines, and artillery. Under immense pressure from armchair commentators and Western chancelleries, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were seemingly forced to move faster because the “spectators” on the sidelines wanted them to. The commanders chose, as with the decision to defend Bakhmut, the decision against the western current and it proved to be not only militarily wise but also humanly sound. For a year and a half, the Ukrainians fought based on a feeling, which we call “Morale” and succeeded, having an enormous military handicap against the Russian invaders, with spectacular results. They are still achieving (to the amazement of those who follow in depth what is going on, those who have spent even a minute in a war to understand the effect of war on the troops, on the civilian population, and on the ecosystem of a country itself) remarkable things militarily, without having superiority on the level: – Artillery; – Tanks; – APCs (Armoured Personnel Carriers); – IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles); – Drones; – Navy; – Aviation; – The number of population that can be trained for mobilization; – Economic resources; – Industrial capacity; – Human resources; – Intelligence and reconnaissance resources; Shall I continue with how many disadvantages Ukraine in this constraint? I’d better stop and go on the advantages it has: – Intelligence and resilience of society and military; – Political and military leadership; – Morale; – Knowledge of the terrain; – Short lines of communication; Lines of communication (GLOC) and terrain knowledge are the only physical, tangible advantages Ukrainians now have. The rest are intelligence-related, abstract, and related to the human ability to instill confidence, cohesion, courage, and inter-human bonds between troops. All these have to do with “Morale”. 3. Perspectives. The inability of cohesion within the Russian Armed Forces, an effect of the endemic corruption in the Russian military system, the inability to decentralization and modernization the Russian army, an effect of the same causes exposed above. The inability to instill confidence and conviction in the minds of Russian soldiers that the purpose of starting this invasion was valid and correct, the resistance and resilience of the Ukrainian military led to a moral collapse of the Russians. This is the Achilles heel of the Russian army. It was not the difference between the T-90 and the Leopard 2A4 (Where the T-90 commanded by a Western crew could prove to be technically better than a Leo 2A4) and certainly not the difference between the Russian Su-35/Su-27 and the Ukrainian MiG-29 (the former being infinitely superior to the equipment available to the Ukrainians) that made the difference. It was the morale. The moral collapse of the Russian Army is inversely proportional to the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and this is the ingredient – beyond Storm Shadow, F-16, Challenger 2, HIMARS, or Bradley M2A2 – that will lead Ukraine to victory. Morale, the one Napoleon said was “guilty” is 2/3 of the elements of a victory. Morale is what the great von Clausewitz said is at least 60% of the recipe for victory, and it is this morale that will ultimately carry the Ukrainians to victory. I promised that I would come back with an analysis of what morale means in the army, from a theoretical point of view, but also what I observed with intelligence brigades, reconnaissance, and mechanized brigades, and from when I was with #AZOV. I’ll also write that analysis which I think will make it easier for you to understand “Why are you, Radu Hossu boy so optimistic about Ukraine?” But on this beautiful Sunday evening, I just wanted to offer you this opinion piece, whereby I wanted to put into perspective where we started, where we are, where I am convinced we will end up, and why I believe that Morale is essential, as a red thread that connects all these time chapters, and that has been, is and will be on Ukraine’s side. Morale beats Metal! #SlavaUkraini !
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Here we go again 